TABNAK – Geoffrey Carliner, professor at Boston University says: Harris will probably follow similar policies towards Iran and its neighbors if she is elected. She will be more open to negotiations with Iran than Trump would be, but she will also oppose Iran and its allies in other situations.
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: Despite Kamala Harris leading in the polls in recent weeks, but in the new poll, Trump is ahead of her. What is the reason for this?
A: There are many different polls of US voters. They all show a very close race. Most of them continue to show Harris ahead by a very small amount nationally, but not necessarily in all the swing states she needs to win in order to become president. Small changes in how people vote in 7 states (out of 50) can determine who wins the election. It is very uncertain who will win.
Q: How much can the debate between Trump and Harris affect the fate of the election and which people are the most affected by the debate?
A: Most Americans have already decided how they will vote in November, but a very small percentage are undecided or may change their minds based on the debate between Harris and Trump on 10 September. In such a close race, even a small number of voters changing their minds could make a difference to the outcome. Voters already know a great deal about Trump. They know much less about Harris. Vice presidents do not receive much attention in the US, and Harris has only been in the news for a little over one month. The debate could have a big effect on the likely outcome of the election.
Q: If Trump wins the election, will he follow his previous foreign policy towards Iran? Will countries in the region like Saudi Arabia accompany his adventures?
A: If Trump becomes president again, he is likely to follow the same approach to Iran as in his first term. He will not be interested in negotiating new agreements with Iran. He will continue to impose economic sanctions on Iran and try to enforce them. He may support occasional assassination attempts. And he will try to broker closer relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But he will not want to start a war or send US troops to fight Iran or its allies in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
Saudi Arabia has its own agenda, set by MBS. It will follow Trump’s policies if MBS thinks they are in Saudi Arabia’s interest, but otherwise will not.
Q: What is the basic difference between Harris's view of Iran and Trump's?
A: Harris is likely to continue Biden’s approach to Iran. Biden tried to negotiate a new JCPOA but was not successful. Some observers claim that he has not enforced sanctions against Iran’s oil exports as strongly as Trump did. Biden helped defend Israel against Iran’s retaliatory attack last April. Like Trump, Biden also tried to negotiate closer relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel before the war in Gaza began. Harris will probably follow similar policies towards Iran and its neighbors if she is elected. She will be more open to negotiations with Iran than Trump would be, but she will also oppose Iran and its allies in other situations.
