TABNAK, Oct, 05: On Oct. 1, for the second time this year, Iran launched a barrage of missiles—nearly 200—toward Israel. This time, the attack involved more advanced missiles and came with little forewarning.
The missiles did not do significant damage, but they signaled Iran’s will and ability to attack Israel—and penetrate its defense systems in potentially damaging ways.
It is thus a major turning point in both the yearlong war in Gaza as well as the security and stability of the broader Middle East going forward. Why did Iran’s leaders choose to so brazenly confront Israel now—and how is Iran likely to act going forward?
The most proximate reason for this latest attack was retaliation. Iran claimed that it was responding to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and the more recent killings of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Beirut.
Beyond exacting retribution, Tehran likely hoped to establish a measure of deterrence against Israeli bullishness after a series of spectacular military and intelligence successes in Lebanon that has gravely damaged Hezbollah.
By Vali Nasr
