TEHRAN-TABNAK, Dec 29 –Nader Entessar, Professor Emeritus of Political Science from university of South Alabama says that Turkey believes Iran's strategic position in the Caucasus has been steadily weakened and that Ankara can now impose its plans there and check-mate Iran.
“Unfortunately, Iran's weakened strategic position has created a situation where neither Ankara nor Baku takes Tehran's warnings about Iran's "red lines" seriously. Therefore, I will not be surprised if Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan take a major step to finalize the Zangezur Corridor project,” Entessar told TABNAK News Agency.
Following is the full text of interview with Professor Entessar:
Q: After the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, Turkey has gained the upper hand in the developments in the region. Some believe that as a result of the change in the balance of power in the region in favor of Turkey, the possibility of regional conflicts will increase. What is your assessment?
A: Erdogan's neo-Ottomanist ambitions have always been a source of conflict in the region. The fall of Assad's regime in which Turkey played a crucial role has given Erdogan a unique opportunity to push and expand his neo-Ottomonist policy. Turkey's ambitions will come into conflict with other stakeholders in the region whose goals may not square off with those of Erdogan. If not managed properly, Turkey's assertiveness may indeed increase the possibility of regional conflicts.
Q: After the Arab Spring (2011), there was a kind of competition between Iran and the axis of resistance with the Brotherhood movement (Qatar and Turkey) and the Salafi-Western movement (Saudi Arabia and the UAE and its Western allies). Is it possible that the competition between Turkey and Qatar with Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be revived?
A: Conditions in 2011 were different from what exists today. In addition, the Arab and Turkish sides have learned how to promote their interests without elevating their competing differences to an open conflict. However, given the fact that developments in Syria are unfolding fast, it is difficult to predict in what direction Turkish-Arab relations will evolve.
Q: Is it possible that as a result of regional competitions, we will witness an increase in the competition between Iran and Turkey in the South Caucasus?
A: Yes, I think this is a distinct possibility. Turkey believes Iran's strategic position in the Caucasus has been steadily weakened and that Ankara can now impose its plans there and check-mate Iran.
Q: Despite Armenia's insistence on the need to maintain its territorial sovereignty over transportation routes and not change borders, the Turkish Minister of Transport has said: “Turkey will continue negotiations with the Republic of Azerbaijan on the Zangezur Corridor.” Do you think that, given the current situation, the construction of this corridor will be on the agenda of Baku and Ankara?
A: Yes. Armenia is a weak country and its erstwhile protector Russia is not in a position to provide much help. Unfortunately, Iran's weakened strategic position has created a situation where neither Ankara nor Baku takes Tehran's warnings about Iran's "red lines" seriously. Therefore, I will not be surprised if Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan take a major step to finalize the Zangezur Corridor project.
Q: The fall of the Assad regime has weakened Russia's position in the Middle East. Given the current trend, how can Russia regain its position in this region?
A: Notwithstanding its current predicament, Russia is still a major power with long-standing interests in the Middle East. Russia will most likely wait to see how developments in Syria will affect the configuration of forces in the region and will then take steps to readjust its Middle East policies to protect Moscow's interests.
