Professor Beeman: No progress in U.S.-Iran relations if both Jalili and Trump win

TABNAK – William O. Beeman, Professor Emeritus of University of Minnesota, says if both Jalili and Trump win, there will be no progress in improving U.S.-Iranian relations.

He adds: “Both politicians maintain demonization of the other nation as an important political asset for maintaining their political power, and the support of their constituencies.”

Following is the text of the Bazaar interview with Professor William O. Beeman.

Q: The first debate between Biden and Trump for the 2024 US presidential election was held. According to polls, Biden's performance has been very poor. What is your assessment?

A: It is important to understand the two dimensions of these public debates. The first is "optics," which is the superficial performance values that the candidates exhibit. The second is "substance," which is the actual content of the presentations of the candidates.

Regarding ‘optics,’ President Biden was weaker than former President Trump. It was claimed that he had a cold. His voice was raspy and appeared weak. When he walked on stage he appeared less vigorous. Most importantly, several times during the debate he appeared to lose his train of thought, and he made some mistakes in his presentation. This was very disturbing for many viewers, because it emphasized his age, and called into question his ability to carry out presidential duties for four more years, when he would be 86, the oldest president in U.S. history. Many leaders in the Democratic Party were immediately alarmed, because Biden's age was one of the most important concerns expressed by voters, and Biden's performance signaled danger for many Democrats in the upcoming election. Some insisted that he should be replaced on the ballot by a younger candidate.

Former President Trump "won" the debate based on optics. He appeared vigorous, cogent, and forceful during the debate. And for many people this was the most important impression they received from watching the debate.

Regarding "substance," President Biden was clearly the winner in the debate. His pronouncements, with few exceptions, were widely verified as accurate and true. Those who paid attention to "substance" rather than "optics" declared Biden to be the winner in terms of the content and information he presented.

Former President Trump presented almost nothing other than lies and distortions during the debate. His pronouncements were widely "fact-checked" and were found to be almost entirely untrue. But he expressed these lies forcefully, and for many U.S. citizens who support him, style was more important than substance.

Unfortunately for President Biden, he was unable to rebut Trump's lies and exaggerations with sufficient rhetorical force. People who were paying attention to what President Biden was saying understood that he was providing effective refutations of Trump's lies and exaggerations, but as said, many less sophisticated people paid more attention to the "optics" rather than the "substance." and tended to let Trump's statements pass uncritically.

Sadly, the "optics" factor usually is more important than the "substance" factor in attracting voter support, so most people declared Trump the "winner" of the debate despite the fact that virtually everything he said was false.

Q: Some pollsters believe that this debate does not hurt Biden's voting base. what is your opinion? Will this debate affect swing votes in swing states?

A: The election is very, very close. It hinges on the 4-5% of "independent" or "undecided" voters. Solid Biden and Trump supporters were not affected by the debate. They will continue to support Biden and Trump as they already had made up their minds. It is the "swing vote" in "swing states that matter, and we have yet to fully assess the effects of the debate on this crucial voter population.  Biden had a rally in the swing State North Carolina the day after the debate that showed him to be vigorous and forceful, and his supporters there declared that they were still supporting him.

Q: Trump recently announced that he is willing to talk and solve problems with the current Iranian leadership. What is your assessment of these words?

A: Frankly, I believe this to be a total lie--the kind of campaign promise politicians make without any intent to actually carry it out once in office. Trump will not do this, or if he does, it will not be carried out in any genuine fashion. It would require that Trump admit that his  abandonment of the JCPOA was a mistake. Or, if he were to agree to talks with Iran, he would almost certainly demand that Iran totally dismantle its nuclear power program. 

Q: In Iran, Saeed Jalili and Masoud Pezeshkian have entered the second round of the presidential elections. Jalili is an opponent of the JCPOA and has strong anti-Western views. What is the effect of Jalili and Trump's possible victory on the foreign policy of the two countries?

A: If both Jalili and Trump win, there will be no progress in improving U.S.-Iranian relations. Both politicians maintain demonization of the other nation as an important political asset for maintaining their political power, and the support of their constituencies. 

Q: Can Trump increase regional tensions like in the first term of his presidency? While the Persian Gulf Arabs and Iran are improving relations. Will the countries of the region be with his policies?

A: Yes, if Trump wins, regional tensions will not improve. Trump talks a big game about solving the Israeli-Hamas conflict, and resolving many other world conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is all "big talk" without much substance. Or, Trump's "solution" to these conflicts may involve unpleasant actions, like allowing Russia to annex parts of Ukraine without U.S. opposition, eliminating U.S. arms shipment to Ukraine, cutting off all aid or help for Palestinians, and many other extremely unpopular actions.  Iran's situation will not be helped in a Trump presidency; that is certain. However, Iran's own diplomatic actions in improving relations with its neighbors can undercut much of the negative action that Trump would certainly take in dealing with Iran should he return to office.