Shireen Hunter: Biden was weak in the debate with Trump

TABNAK –Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that during his first debate with Donald Trump, Biden needed to show that, despite his advanced age, he is mentally sharp and in command of all his critical facilities.

She adds, “Biden failed this test.”

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: The first debate between Biden and Trump for the 2024 US presidential election was held. According to polls, Biden's performance has been very poor. What is your assessment?

A: During his first debate with Donald Trump, Biden needed to show that, despite his advanced age, he is mentally sharp and in command of all his critical facilities.  Biden failed this test. He came across as confused and weak. Even some staunch Democrats have called for him to withdraw from the race and allow another more vigorous Democrat to run for presidency, and thus increase Democrats' chances of defeating Trump. However, this is a risky option. Most of the likely candidates to replace Biden are too liberal. This could push some undecided voters towards Trump. In the swing states, Biden's poor performance could mean that some democrats would not vote, which would help Trump.

Q: Some pollsters believe that this debate does not hurt Biden's voting base. What is your opinion? Will this debate affect swing votes in swing states?

A: Each of the two major political parties have committed supporters who would support the party's candidate no matter what. This explains why a portion of the Democratic Party still supports Biden. However, everybody also wants to win the race. Therefore, it is not clear how long this group of Democrats would remain loyal to Biden. In the next few weeks they, too, might ask Biden to withdraw from the race.

Q: Trump recently announced that he is willing to talk and solve problems with the current Iranian leadership. What is your assessment of these words?

A: For a dialogue between Iran and the US to begin, the Iranian side must also be willing to talk to Washington directly. However, there is no evidence that Tehran is willing to do so. In fact, conditions for the start of a dialogue between Tehran and the US have worsened in recent years. For instance, Iran has forced closer ties with Russia, which has always opposed US-Iran reconciliation. In view of the worsening US-Russia ties and the War in Ukraine, Moscow will do everything to prevent Iran from talking to Washington. China, too, would not be pleased with US-Iran reconciliation. Moreover, the US would demand concessions from Iran, especially regarding Israel, the Palestinian problem, and its regional policies, which Iran would not accept. In fact, the issue of US-Iran relations has become even more complicated than before. Both sides have missed many opportunities to end their hostilities. This failure has been damaging to both, but especially to Iran. It has stymied its economic advancement and made it vulnerable to manipulation by countries, like Russia and China and even small regional states.

Q: In Iran, Saeed Jalili and Masoud Pezeshkian have entered the second round of the presidential elections. Jalili is an opponent of the JCPOA and has strong anti-Western views. What is the effect of Jalili and Trump's possible victory on the foreign policy of the two countries?

A: In view of the fact that important and strategic decisions in Iran are made by the Supreme Leader, the preferences of the President are not very important. The Experiences of three reformist Presidents attest to this fact. Therefore, if the leader decides that he wants to resolve the dispute with the US, he could do so. However, even he could face problems and challenges. For instance, certainly, groups in the Middle East that receive Iranian financial and other support would oppose any shift in its regional policies. They might turn against Tehran and cause security challenges to it. The fact is that Iran has created a web of problems for itself and it would not be easy to free itself of these entanglements.

Q: Can Trump increase regional tensions like in the first term of his presidency? While the Persian Gulf Arabs and Iran are improving relations. Will the countries of the region be with his policies?

A: It is very difficult to predict what Trump might do. However, given the problems that Washington is facing in other parts of the Middle East, I doubt that he would seek to exacerbate tensions in the Persian Gulf, in the absence of unforeseen developments.

Moreover, improvement in the atmospherics of Iran-Arab relations has not fundamentally altered their view of Iran and the challenges that it poses. They still are US allies and suspicious of Tehran.