TABNAK –Marc Finaud, Associate Fellow at the GCSP at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), says the only way for Iran to promote the lifting of sanctions is to implement its Safeguards agreement with the IAEA fully and move towards a negotiated solution to the JCPOA breakdown.
He adds that “The E3 initiative is consistent with the role it always played since it initiated the talks with Iran in 2002: balancing threats of sanctions with mutually beneficial negotiations.”
Following is the full text of interview:
Q: The Wall Street Journal reported, citing the Trump team, that the team is considering an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. What are the risks of this possible action?
A: It is not surprising nor new, considering Trump's past attitudes towards Iran. The neoconservatives encouraged by Israel consider that such a military option against Iran's nuclear facilities will offer an effective and definitive solution. However, most objective experts are convinced that, after such strikes, Iran's program would be delayed but not terminated, and that Iran would then be incited to develop nuclear weapons secretly or openly.
Q: The European Troika has announced in a letter to the UN Security Council that it is ready to activate the ‘Snapback Mechanism’. It seems that a kind of coordination has been established between the views of Europe, the United States, and Israel regarding confronting Iran’s nuclear program. On the one hand, there is a military threat, and on the other hand, there is a threat to activate the ‘Snapback Mechanism’. It seems that measures against Iran’s nuclear program will be increased before October 2025. What is your assessment?
A: The E3 initiative is consistent with the role it always played since it initiated the talks with Iran in 2002: balancing threats of sanctions with mutually beneficial negotiations. In putting pressure on Iran for a return to a negotiated solution, it hopes to convince Tehran that it would be less detrimental to its interests than the risk of maximum pressure when Trump returns to power.
Q: Iran has announced that it will not accept additional measures on safeguards inspections from the IAEA until the sanctions are lifted. It seems that Iran’s cooperation with the Agency, in the framework of the March 2023 agreement, has become dependent on Iran’s dialogue with Trump. What is your assessment?
A: This Iranian approach is a dangerous one. Iran cannot make cooperation with the IAEA, which is a legal obligation, dependent on relations with the US or the EU. The only way for Iran to promote the lifting of sanctions is to implement its Safeguards agreement with the IAEA fully and move towards a negotiated solution to the JCPOA breakdown.
Q: What is your prediction about the upcoming report of the IAEA on Iran’s nuclear program? Will it be a report that satisfies the Western countries?
A: The IAEA can only report the facts that it observes in Iran. If Tehran continues or increases its enrichment of uranium at 60 percent, it will report it and this will fuel the concerns about Iran's nuclear program since this level of enrichment can hardly be explained for peaceful uses.
