Geoffrey Carliner: Netanyahu would lose an election by a wide margin

TABNAK: Professor Geoffrey Carliner, professor at Boston University says: Netanyahu would lose an election by a wide margin because he is very unpopular among a majority of Israelis.

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: Despite widespread opposition, Israel attacked Rafah. Why did Netanyahu insist on this operation?

A: Netanyahu attacked Rafah because he thinks Hamas’s remaining fighters are concentrated there.  He also wants to control tunnels from Egypt to Rafah that he thinks Hamas is using to restock its weapons.

Q: Biden's extensive support for Israel seems to have negative results on his voting base. Protests continue in American universities and among minorities who are Biden's vote base. Is it possible for the United States to put pressure on Netanyahu's government to stop the war?

A: Biden’s pressure on Netanyahu seems to have limited the IDF’s attack on Rafah. The IDF’s bombing in Rafah has been more limited than its bombing in other parts of Gaza, though not limited enough to prevent the deaths of dozens of people in a refugee camp.  But Biden’s pressure on Netanyahu will not be able to stop the war.  If Netanyahu stopped the war, the right wing parties in his coalition would vote against him, his government would fall, he would lose the resulting election, and might go to jail for corruption charges once he is no longer prime minister.  Moreover, even Israelis who oppose Netanyahu would not support a permanent cease fire that left Hamas in power in part or all of Gaza.  Pressure from Biden is not enough to offset the political support in Israel for eliminating Hamas by continuing the war. 

 Q: The International Criminal Court (ICC) has applied for the arrest and detention of Netanyahu. Will this request become a final ruling? What effect will this request have on Netanyahu's political future?

A: Netanyahu would lose an election by a wide margin.  He is very unpopular among a majority of Israelis.  But rulings by the ICC and the ICJ have no effect on Netanyahu’s popularity in Israel and no effect on his political future.  Israeli voters are not influenced by the opinions of international courts.

 Q: The United States has rejected the jurisdiction of the ICC for such a request. What is your assessment? Meanwhile, a similar sentence was proposed for Putin by this court and it was welcomed by the United States.

A: The US welcomes proceedings by international courts against its rivals like Russia but opposes them against its allies like Israel.  

Q: At the same time as the Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice also ruled to stop the war in Rafah. Can these decrees pressure Israel to stop the war?

A: No.  The ICJ has no power to enforce its rulings, and it has no influence over public opinion in Israel.