TABNAK – William O. Beeman, Professor Emeritus of University of Minnesota, says the ceasefire will torpedo Netanyahu's political career, and further, will expose him to the court proceedings that are on hold while he is prime minister.
He adds: “He has no motivation to end the assault on Palestinians, and no motivation to adhere to a ceasefire.”
Following is the text of the Tabnak interview with Professor William O. Beeman.
Q: The Gaza ceasefire negotiations ended in Doha, Qatar, while the three countries, the United States, Qatar and Egypt, declared it constructive, and it was decided to continue reviewing the details at next week's meeting in Cairo. What is your assessment of these negotiations?
A: The negotiations have been made more difficult by the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Moreover, the Israeli government was not involved, and as long as Prime Minister Netanyahu is in power, it is unclear that Israel would do anything to implement the agreements made by these external parties. Hamas for its part has no reason to trust the Israelis to adhere to any agreement. The only thing that can move Hamas and Israel toward a cease fire agreement would be for the United States to put pressure on Israel. This probably will not happen until after the November election.. After the election there will be a three month period when President Biden will be free to pursue the unpopular policy of pressuring Israel. That is a long timeto wait, but United States political realities must be taken into consideration. Anything the United States does to pressure Israel to accept a cease fire before the election will damage the chances of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Q: Hamas has announced that the Doha negotiations were a waste of time and has demanded the implementation of the previous negotiations. Hamas believes that Netanyahu is trying to buy time by proposing new negotiations. Will the implementation of the three-phase plan of the US for the Gaza ceasefire be realized?
A: Yes, Hamas has announced that the Doha negotiations were a waste of time, because Israel has been an unreliable partner in negotiations, and as said above, they were instrumental in assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the middle of negotiations. The U.S.-led plans will not be implemented unless the United States takes dramatic steps to force Israel to comply, and as said, Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is dependent on his right-wing coalition, and who benefits personally directly from continued assault on the Gaza and West Bank Palestinian communities will not comply. He is defiant, and because of controversy in the United States over this issue, he feels that he has free reign to continue the assault.
Q: The realization of the ceasefire will end Netanyahu's political life. Knowing this, Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire. Will America be able to put pressure on Netanyahu's government in this regard?
A: Yes, a ceasefire will torpedo Netanyahu's political career, and further, will expose him to the court proceedings that are on hold while he is prime minister. He has no motivation to end the assault on Palestinians, and no motivation to adhere to a ceasefire.
Q: It seems that Iran and Hezbollah are considering the results of the Gaza ceasefire negotiations for a military response to Israel. Although Iran has declared that the ceasefire in Gaza is a priority, it has called Iran's reaction independent of it. What is your assessment?
A: It is difficult for people outside of the Middle East region to fully comprehend that the interests of Hamas and Hezbollah are different. Both groups have their reasons for being opposed to Israeli politics, but those reasons are quite distinct. Iran's interests lie primarily with Hezbollah and the Shi'a community in Lebanon. Iran is not the primary supporter of Hamas, though it is sympathetic to the plight of Palestinians. Israel benefits from promulgating the specter of Iran as its primary enemy, and thus it makes certain that it keeps up provocation of Hezbollah, though the interest that Hezbollah has regarding the Hamas issue is tenuous. The demonization of Iran and the promulgation of Iran as the deus ex machina for all of Israel's troubles has served Prime Minister Netanyahu very well. He has managed to make Iran the bogeyman throughout his career, and has largely persuaded the United States that this is true. Iranian leaders don't do very much to counter this rhetoric, which allows this narrative to continue.
