TABNAK: Richard C. Fording, professor of Alabama University says: the Biden Administration’s continued support of Israel in the aftermath of the Gaza invasion has certainly hurt him, politically. The problem he faces is that Democratic voters are deeply divided over this issue and there is no response that could possibly please both sides. So, Biden continues to support Israel, but has also tried to send some signals that his administration does not approve of military actions that harm civilians.
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: Despite widespread opposition, Israel attacked Rafah. Why did Netanyahu insist on this operation?
A: I am not an expert on Israeli politics, but I would guess that there is still widespread political support for continuing the “war on Hamas” in Israel, despite opposition from outside Israel.
Q: Biden's extensive support for Israel seems to have negative results on his voting base. Protests continue in American universities and among minorities who are Biden's vote base. Is it possible for the United States to put pressure on Netanyahu's government to stop the war?
A: The Biden Administration’s continued support of Israel in the aftermath of the Gaza invasion has certainly hurt him, politically. The problem he faces is that Democratic voters are deeply divided over this issue and there is no response that could possibly please both sides. So, Biden continues to support Israel, but has also tried to send some signals that his administration does not approve of military actions that harm civilians. These signals have mostly come in the form of disapproving rhetoric and have been merely symbolic. More recently, Biden threatened to withhold weapons shipments to Israel if Israel moved forward with the Rafah invasion. However, there has been a significant backlash over that threat and Biden has since backed down. There is really no reason to expect that Biden will do anything significant to pressure Israel to stop the war. The people who support Israel’s war in Gaza are older and have more political power than the people who oppose it. There is no solution for Biden that would secure the support of both sides of this debate, so I believe his strategy is to go as far as he can to appease those who support the Palestinian people in this conflict, without going too far so that he loses support from those who support Israel. The most likely outcome, it seems, is that he will continue to disappoint both sides of this debate.
Q: The International Criminal Court (ICC) has applied for the arrest and detention of Netanyahu. Will this request become a final ruling? What effect will this request have on Netanyahu's political future?
A: I do not have any expertise on the ICC and therefore I am not sure if this will become a final ruling. However, this move has already added a great deal of legitimacy to the claims by those who oppose the Israeli invasion that it has resulted in major human rights violations. My sense is that it will empower the opposition and fuel continued protest mobilizations around the world. However, I don’t see this having much of an effect on Israel’s supporters. It is possible that it will further empower them as well, as they see the actions of the ICC as illegitimate and evidence of “antisemitic” attacks on Israel.
Q: The United States has rejected the jurisdiction of the ICC for such a request. What is your assessment? Meanwhile, a similar sentence was proposed for Putin by this court and it was welcomed by the United States.
A: Supporting this move by the ICC is simply a line that the U.S. will never cross until public opinion this issue shifts dramatically in this country. That is not going to happen because most Americans do not see the ICC as a legitimate political institution that should have any say over American foreign policy. Of course, if the ICC does something that is interpreted to support a U.S. foreign policy objective, the U.S. government will support the ICC, as in the case of Putin.
Q: At the same time as the Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice also ruled to stop the war in Rafah. Can these decrees pressure Israel to stop the war?
A: As long as the United States continues to support Israel and the war, I don’t see how Israel would ever feel any pressure to stop the war. One additional political problem that the Biden Administration has is that most Republicans, including their leader – Donald Trump, support Israel unconditionally. Therefore, even the most timid actions to express disapproval of the Gaza war makes Biden risk looking insufficiently supportive of Israel. This is a big problem because it gives Jewish voters, who overwhelmingly support Israel in this conflict, a good reason to vote for Republicans – including Trump – in 2024, despite the fact that they would otherwise prefer Biden and the Democrats.
