Taiwan heads into a crucial presidential and parliamentary poll today that will determine the future course of the young democracy’s relations with the United States and China.
After an election campaign that has been dominated by fears of Chinese interference and targeted disinformation operations, some 19 million eligible voters will decide between Tsai Ing-wen, 63, the incumbent president, and Han Kuo-yu, 62, the populist opposition candidate.
In broad terms, voters are being asked to choose between a closer relationship with Washington, represented by Ms Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DMT), or the stronger trade ties with neighbouring China favoured by Mr Han’s Kuomintang (KMT) Party.
Taiwan, an island of 23 million off the southeast coast of China, functions as a de facto independent nation with its own elections, currency and military. The majority of the population now identify as being Taiwanese.
However, China claims the Taiwan as its own territory and has pledged to annex its territory, using force if necessary. Beijing mistrusts President Tsai and used military and economic pressure to try to undermine her administration, while attempting to isolate Taiwan on the global stage.
After decades of martial law, Taiwan did not see its first direct presidential poll until 1996, and elections in Taiwan are a colourful and generally joyful affair.
Hundreds of thousands this week attended the final Han and Tsai rallies in the sweeping boulevards near the presidential office in the capital, Taipei.
The events revealed a striking generational divide. Mr Han benefits from a passionate and motivated core of elderly voters, while Ms Tsai is more popular with the younger generations, many of whom have backed her pension reforms and push to legalise same-sex marriage.
“Tsai Ing-wen, elect! 2020, Taiwan will win!” crowds chanted, waving pink and green DPP flags in Taipei on the eve of the poll.
“Every one of us must vote!” Ms Tsai told her supporters, urging the public to help secure Taiwan’s role as a bastion of democracy in Asia and invoking Hong Kong’s ongoing anti-government protests as evidence that China’s “one country, two systems” method does not work.
Polls suggest President Tsai is expected to claim an easy win after a remarkable comeback last year fueled by her strong support for Hong Kong pro-democracy demonstrators and domestic fears over China.
“I don’t want to see Taiwan becoming Hong Kong. I want my children to live in a free democratic place in the future,” said Liu Su-hwa, 60, who was attending Friday night’s election event.
However, several expressed concerns that voter turnout could negatively impact the results for Ms Tsai and her party.
“There are a lot of questions about turnout. Tsai’s ability to win by the wide margin that I think is necessary is very much contingent on people coming out and voting, particularly the young people,” said Michael Cole, a Taipei-based analyst at the University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Studies Programme.
Strict electoral rules determining that people must return to vote where their household is registered – which disallow voting by proxy or by mail - disproportionately affect young people, who often face inconvenient or expensive journeys home. Many overseas voters are also believed to be flying back.
While domestic issues such as the economy and stagnating wages are among the public’s main concerns, the election will be watched closely in Beijing, Washington and in regional capitals who would be strategically impacted by a potential shift in Taiwan’s allegiances.
A few hundred miles away in Chinese-ruled Hong Kong, activists now entering their eighth month of pro-democracy protests have flooded onto social media to urge the Taiwanese electorate to cherish its vote. Several “Free Hong Kong” flags have been spotted at DPP events.
Mr Han, who has focused on revitalising the economy by repairing the island’s strained relationship with Beijing, this week also drew huge crowds in Taipei and the southern city of Kaohsiung, where he became mayor in a landslide victory last year.
His supporters, many dressed in the blue and red colours of the Republic of China flag – Taiwan’s official name – remain bullish and confident of his chances of success, praising his “common touch.”
Despite trailing in the polls, Mr Han’s KMT could still secure a majority in the 113-seat parliament.
Many have bought into the KMT message that four more years under President Tsai would worsen relations with China, destablising the economy.
Jimmy Chang, 60, who attended Mr Han’s Thursday night rally said he would be casting his vote to secure a better future for the younger population.
"It's simple. We just want there to be stability in our society. We don't want there to be tensions with China. China is big, Taiwan is small, so the best way is for us to find a way to exist peacefully together for the benefit of our future generations,” he said.
