What is happening?
In the political equivalent of Groundhog Day, Israelis are voting on Monday in the country’s third election in 12 months. The leading players remain the same. Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, is pitted against Benny Gantz, a former army chief.
Why wasn’t this decided a year ago?
The first two elections, the first in April and the second in September, produced inconclusive results. It is extremely unlikely for a party to win an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset under Israel’s political system. They have to forge majority coalitions instead. Neither Netanyahu nor Gantz were able to do that, leading to rematches.
Why is this cycle happening?
It all comes down to electoral maths and stubbornness. Netanyahu persuaded his rightwing allies not to make deals with the opposition, and Gantz ruled out forming a unity government with Netanyahu because he is under indictment for corruption. The potential kingmaker and far-right nationalist, Avigdor Lieberman, refused to join either side. Politicians from Israel’s sizeable Arab minority have also won enough seats to shake things up, but they remain on the sidelines because they are ideologically opposed to and rejected by the main Zionist parties.
Has anything changed this time?
The big difference is that Netanyahu ran the past two elections under the threat of indictment. He has now been formally charged with corruption. He is set to appear in court for the first hearing two weeks after the election, on 17 March.
So his historic stretch in high office is over?
Don’t bet on it. The indictment has caused a lot of drama, but polls suggest it has had little impact on voters. They predict a similar outcome to the previous two elections. It’s possible there will be no clear winner, and yes, a fourth election.
Even if Netanyahu comes out ahead in the vote, Israeli judges might look at whether he can legally form a government while facing criminal charges. The situation is unprecedented and unpredictable.
When will we know the results?
Voting figures will trickle in from the early hours of Tuesday morning. If the outcome is muddied again, the real battle for power could take weeks or months.
