TABNAK –Nader Entessar, Professor Emeritus of Political Science from university of South Alabama says that there is no understanding between Tehran and Washington regarding Iran's oil sales.
“Changing conditions in Iran and world politics and a more aggressive approach by Iran concerning its oil sales (especially to China) allowed Tehran to increase its oil exports to its current level,” Entessar told TABNAK News Agency.
Following is the full text of interview with Professor Entessar:
Q: It seems that the recent resolution of the International Atomic Energy Agency lays the groundwork for the next actions of the E3 and the U.S. against Iran's nuclear program. In the sense that it is the basis for snapback activation. What is your assessment?
A: The scenario you described may come to fruition if Iran does not change its passive and mostly weak approach to E3 and the IAEA. Issuing condemnation every time the IAEA issues a condemnatory report is a reactive approach to a major enduring problem with significant national security implications for Iran.
Q: If Biden wins the US election, will he sign a new agreement with Iran?
A: If Biden is reelected, he will have to deal with a mountain of domestic and international issues. I don't think Biden will be in a position to sign a new agreement with Iran even if he wants to do so. Nothing in Biden's political background indicates a policy shift in the second Biden administration.
Q: If Trump wins, what will be his approach to Iran's nuclear program?
A: Trump is the most unpredictable top-level politician in recent American history. Trying to predict what Trump may or may not do is futile. However, he will try to resurrect his "maximum pressure" policy towards Iran in the hope of bringing Iran to "its knees."
Q: Will E3 and the United States allow Iran’s JCPOA restrictions to be lifted in October 2025?
A: I don't think so. The JCPOA and the relevant UN Security Council resolution were drafted in such a way as to keep restrictions on Iran as long as the JCPOA is in force. Lifting restrictions on Iran after October 2025 requires the IAEA to present an unambiguous report on Iran's nuclear program, which is highly unlikely. The JCPOA will remain an albatross around Iran's neck.
Q: Some argue that the sale of oil by the government of Ebrahim Raisi is the result of an understanding between Iran and America and with the green light of the Biden government, and if Trump comes to power, it will prevent the sale of Iranian oil. But Iran's officials believe that oil sales have nothing to do with Biden's government, and Iran's oil sales will continue even with Trump's presence. What is your assessment?
A: I don't think there is an understanding between Tehran and Washington regarding Iran's oil sales. Changing conditions in Iran and world politics and a more aggressive approach by Iran concerning its oil sales (especially to China) allowed Tehran to increase its oil exports to its current level. If Trump is reelected, he will use bombastic rhetoric toward Iran, but short of going to war or seizing Iranian ships, the second Trump administration will have a marginal impact on Iran's energy exports, especially if Trump adopts a harsh policy towards China.
