Ask yourself this; if you voted for something in a referendum – like same-sex marriage, or to change the date of Australia Day – but the government was so divided on technicalities that it couldn’t follow through with the result, OR what you thought you were voting for shifted… should you get to vote again? Or is that cheating?
After one of the most turbulent weeks of her Prime Ministership, Theresa May has returned to her countryside retreat Chequers for the weekend, no doubt taking refuge in quiet cups of tea or walks in the extensive gardens.
Parliament is deadlocked and the country is divided.
May has much to contemplate and plot.
On Tuesday she made history, suffering the biggest defeat in Britain’s House of Commons in modern history, when her much maligned Brexit agreement deal was rejected by a whopping majority of 230 MPs - including 118 of her own Conservative colleagues.
As a result, on Wednesday she faced – and narrowly won - a no confidence vote in her Government, tabled by Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn immediately after the failed “Meaningful Vote".
Addressing the nation late on Wednesday evening after a shambolic 24 hours, May urged Parliament to put the national interest first and find a way to deliver Brexit.
But the options for doing so are dwindling, and with the clock is ticking towards the March 29 deadline for Britain to leave the European Union, there’s growing momentum for a second referendum to allow the public to break the deadlock their government can’t crack.
And now there’s another deadline looming; this Monday January 21, May must present her revised deal to the Commons.
To shape that plan, the Prime Minister has been holding talks with cross party MPs, although her main opponent, Mr Corbyn has steadfastly refused to meet with her until a “no-deal” Brexit is off the table.
Meantime several Cabinet ministers are reportedly preparing to back a bill tabled in Parliament this week which would make it legally impossible for the UK to leave at the end of March without a deal.
But the Prime Minister says a “no-deal” Brexit cannot be ruled out, given the terms of Article 50 - the legally binding document which gives any country two years to negotiate leaving the European Union.
Theresa May triggered Article 50 on March 29 2017, setting the timeline for this year’s Brexit. So could it be extended to allow May more time to sure up the elements of her deal which are proving impossible?
EU leaders would have to unanimously agree, and at this stage they have said they won’t consider an extension unless the Government can show it has a clear plan moving forward, and a majority in the Commons to support it.
For two and a half years, negotiations have dragged on hitting roadblock after roadblock.
Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement – finally thrashed out and agreed upon by her Cabinet in July last year – has been dragged across the coals, tweaked by EU leaders, critiqued and debated until MP’s turned blue in the face.
The media – myself included – have used the term “crunch time” so many times it’s losing its impact.
But what happens over the coming fortnight truly is critical to the UK’s future. It will impact transport and trade, immigration, and the economy. No one knows exactly to what extent, and that’s part of the problem.
Whatever revised deal Theresa May comes up and puts to the House on Monday will be voted on – along with any amendments – one week later on January 29th, exactly two months before the scheduled leave date.
If enough has changed to satisfy MPs and the deal passes, Britain will be on track to leave the EU at the end of March.
If the House rejects the deal again, the Government will be pushed further into unchartered territory.
There could well be a second vote of no confidence, though Conservative MPs who might vote against the deal aren’t going to vote themselves out of power.
Theresa May could resign or be forced out, although that seems most unlikely. She survived a leadership challenge before Christmas, giving her political immunity from her own party for another 11 months.
And she’s repeatedly said she’s not going anywhere until she delivers the result of the 2016 referendum.
Ultimately, if no agreement can be reached and the parliamentary deadlock continues, the UK will leave the EU without a deal.
There would be no 21-month transition period, meaning businesses and citizens would have to no time to adjust to the changes.
It’s not the Brexit people voted for, and with Parliament soon to be given a second Meaningful Vote, there’s a growing sense that the public want the same privilege, and input.
Their future is at stake, and their Government has failed at every turn.
