While the U.S. Congress has been expressly tuned in raising up the "pressing issues" between the U.S.-Egypt relation, Trump is still rolling out the red carpet for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's visit on April 9.
Fifteen U.S. senators from both sides of the political aisle asked on Monday in a letter to "encourage" Secretary Pompeo to address three major concerns in the U.S.-Egypt relation – 12 Americans detained by Egypt; the alleged purchase of 20 Russia Sukhoi SU -35s; the human rights record in Egypt.
Sisi is the second major leader from the Middle East hosted by the White House in less than a month. Two weeks ago, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu brought back Trump's formal recognition on Israel's authority over Golan Heights, right before the national legislative election in Israel, which is considered as a major diplomatic victory for Netanyahu.
Although Trump's statement has caused backlashes around the globe, Sisi might still be expecting support from Washington. The Egyptian chamber is scheduled to give the constitutional reform the final approval in mid-April, with a national referendum to follow. This constitution reform practically will extend Sisi's claim in office from 2022 to 2034. Also, as a former minister of defense, Sisi will empower the military a constitutional right through this reform.
However, the domestic landscape is not necessarily in Sisi's favor as the general public is demoralized by the country's ailing economy. According to International Monetary Fund officials, the youth unemployment rate remains very high, and double-digit inflation has led to higher social instability under Sisi's "broken economic model."
Currently, Sisi can leverage an endorsement from Trump to entrench his popularity – both diplomatically and economically. With the dynamic on the Capitol Hill shifted to Democrats in the past mid-term election, Cairo is currently at risk of losing 1.3 billion U.S. dollars in annual military aid from the Congress.
While Sisi is fond of positioning himself as an irreplaceable reformer of Islam and friend of Christians after taking office, the image is not bought on Capitol Hill. Human right groups in Washington are intensifying their efforts to lobby against Sisi utilizing this meeting to codify his rule in Egypt further.
Cairo has been under attacks from the Western media about its human rights records since Sisi took office in 2013, and Sisi himself has tried to change the impression. In January, Sisi granted an interview with "60 Minutes," under the intention of setting up a more positive image on the world stage. During the interview, Sisi denied multiple charges against him, including a Human Rights Watch claim that 60,000 people have been jailed for political reasons since 2014.
However, this interview simply sparked more accusations against him. A Politico assessment after the interview said Sisi had failed his promises while taking office, but become more zealous than that of his predecessors in "enforcing illiberal norms against atheists and LGBT citizens, among others."
Despite all the worries about the future trajectory of the political landscape in Egypt, Washington still believes Cairo has a key role in brokering a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Trump would expect to secure Egypt as a partner to Israel to deliver his peace plan in the region.
Last month, Sisi reportedly made a deal with Moscow to purchase 20 Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets for 2 billion U.S. dollars, which might trigger U.S. sanctions. This move prompted 15 U.S. senators to write a letter addressed to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo voicing their concern about closer diplomatic ties between Cairo and Moscow.
But it could also be a strategic move to add on negotiation chips with Washington. According to Michele Dunne from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Egypt traditionally cooperates with Israel at the top level consistently on military and intelligence matters. In March, an Egyptian intelligence officer commented on the rocket attack launched by Hamas, saying, "if Israel decides to launch a comprehensive military operation in Gaza, we won't do a thing to stop it, even if it decides to simultaneously topple Hamas and conquer the Gaza Strip."
Although the outcome of this meeting may be vague, there are certain questions expected to be answered about U.S.-Egypt relations. Can the meeting offer Sisi the same support from Washington as Prime Minister Netanyahu? Can Washington protect its national and security interests by supporting Sisi's rule in Egypt? And most importantly, whatever comes out of the partnership between the two, will it be the stabilizer of the Middle East, or simply stir more turbulence?
