The peak of the coronavirus pandemic is likely still 10 days away in the US — when an alarming 3,130 Americans are predicted to die in a single day, according to new scientific data.
Graphs created by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics outline predicted death tolls for each state, along with warnings about potential shortages of much-needed hospital beds.
The models support Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s suggestion that the pandemic is close to its apex in New York — forecasting that it will peak on Thursday.
But if true, it will be a terrifying pinnacle for the Empire State — with a predicted 878 deaths that day.
The demand for medical equipment will peak here on Wednesday, the day before the death-toll apex — with the state running short of almost 12,500 hospital beds, almost 6,000 of them in intensive-care units, the models predict.
New Jersey follows the national timeline, with its peak forecast to be in 10 days, with 584 COVID-19 deaths projected on April 16. The Garden State will also have a huge shortage of beds, lacking more than 16,800, with more than 4,500, according to the data.
Nationwide, the peak is predicted to hit a week from Thursday, with 3,130 that day — pushing the predicted total of deaths to 81,766 by Aug. 4. The US could be short a total of more than 36,500 hospital beds, more than 16,300 in ICUs during the peak, they predict.
The projections, which are updated daily, work on the assumption that there is “full social distancing through May 2020,” they warn, with the assumption areas not on lockdown will implement measures soon.
“If social distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the US will see greater death tolls,” warned the institute’s director, Dr. Christopher Murray.
Also, the “death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater, and the economic costs will continue to grow,” he warned.
The models change daily, with extra data from deaths and infections making them increasingly accurate, Murray said.
“These projections are vital to health planners, policymakers, and anyone else associated with caring for those affected by and infected with the coronavirus,” he said.
